USA not involved, bullish AF if the GCC countries fight the war we started and buy more weapons from America.

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I know this isn't what you mean, but 10M would be $65 and 50M is $85. It could just be that the price of oil is too high. Plus, the GCC right now is scrambling to build pipelines around the hormuz, now that they've learned the USA can't protect them, so within a few years it will be much less of a problem.

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https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2041821490505482463?s=20 https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/gcc/uae-downs-missiles-kuwait-infrastructure-hit-despite-ceasefire/ Iran oil facilities got hit. UAE and Kuwait also got hit. Buy your puts at open.

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People thinking trump would actually do the bombing kinda highlights to me how regarding some WSB users are. Trumps TACO was so obvious - he could not carry through with his threat as the GCC wouldve been razed. The GCC give him plane, give his son in law billions to management. They lube him up. It was impossible for his to do this. His allies would lose 100s of Bills

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My play: Bigly green today on 🌮 ceasefire Watch if SPX breaches JPM collar at 6840 If it does, buy some cheap short-dated calls for potential squeeze If not by eod, buy spy 05/15 puts on cpi news but mainly damage assessment news from the gcc states in next few days If 🥭 can’t protect them from Iran, I think they’ll try and make bank from the situation by holding oil higher for longer

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Not defending Trump, huge mistake to start this war. Here's how it 'ends' with both sides 'happy' 1. Reparations - Trump is going to lift sanctions and will provide 'aid' through the remnants of USAID. This will be money and food, which Iran needs to reduce water usage for crops which has caused an almost total collapse of their water system. Trump will also lift some sanctions (Venezuela style). 2. Uranium - The US will acknowledge Iran's right to enrich, to a non-nuclear standard, basically the previous deal Obama negotiated. IAEA will monitor  3. Control of Strait - US will acknowledge that the Strait is "managed" by Iran and Oman commission but can't charge tolls.  What does the US get: 1. Iran will conduct oil sales in USD. Iran DGAF about the Yuan and was using USD previously.  2. Iran won't be allowed to sell weapons to 'terrorists' basically ending Iran's proxies. Iran knows it's proxies deterrent failed anyway, and they need to rebuild the Iran military before support regional partners anyway (although they may continue to arm houthis to control the red sea). 3. Iran, US, GCC and Israel stop hostilities. Israel knew they couldn't topple Iran, as did the US, but if they can turn Iran from hostile to distrustful that's a big win for Israel in particular. This is the crown jewel for the US & Israel and is part of the US strategy of flipping middle powers from China to US. Cuba, Venezuela and Iran are all aligned against the US and therefore would align with China. Plus it reinforces petrodollar dominance. If the US gets this, they functionally win. Now will Iran be a friendly? No. But they effective neuter Iran, force the GCC to oblige the US lest they restart hostilities and shore up power through the USD.  Ultimately the US fucked up here. But the US strategy is genuinely to open simmering conflicts to expand power. It's a bad strategy in the long term, because the US is showing itself to be a bully rather than a reliable partner. It's forcing allies and enemies to re-arm and will ultimately lead to a multi-polar order as the US lead collation fades as allies get fed up with bending the knee. Each conflict also leaves the US massively exposed for other corners of the globe to take advantage of the distraction. Next up Cuba. A much weaker power with almost no leverage. The US showed its quite willing to bomb the shit out of any country and leaders that don't go along with its plans, so you can bet that this one will go alot smoother. Trump has wounds to lick, but they will use this show of force against Iran to scare Cuba into heavy concessions.  After Cuba, we'll have a break for the mid-terms but then we have 2 years of Trump uninhibited. He's going to get something from Canada, Greenland or Europe that they don't want to give up, he wants that 51st state and you better believe he's going to find a lever in there to take a big step in that direction. My guess, Canada as they aren't part of the EU. Probably removal of their tariffs.

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Pal, I understand. But the US really hasn't made a real military effort to take it over specifically. It's not that I don't think they can, US/GCC will not allow it. Simply cannot allow it. UAE hates Iran and their whole economy is based on oil production so Iran cannot hold the strait, unless there is some magical way to circumvent it. Sorry I don't have Truth Social so I missed that freakout, but in the real world it's not that bad, right now. But I do agree we'll probably send troops or someway get control in 2 weeks.

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Market is not ready to sell off, the price action despite all the risks is clear. Unwind short and wait for another day. This only a ceasefire and we are potentially a long way from true peace, especially considering all gcc states now realize overnight they got fked over by trump big time.

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I'd guess the itch in Israel ass won't be calm and they're the ones to restart the attack. Step by step it will ratchet up, one bomb here another small bomb there.l causing Iran to retaliate equally on GCC.

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Is it? Say hostilities end…and we find out 2 mmbbl/d is offline for at least a year. What else if we find out Iran caps tankers at 80% to the GCC to enforce OPEC goals that they are now in charge of. Or just simply charges their boats $20M instead of everyone else’s $2M? And Israel? Just March back from Lebanon and sit tight, waiting for a buildup of enemies that they finally had gotta ahead of? Speaking of the GCC too, they just want to become vassals of Iran? Because that’s what control of their trade means. Nah, even the peace has lots of global energy peril still ahead of it.

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