Welp went from 9k to 900 today with spy puts after going from 250 to 9k (so technically still up 260%). Might as well just take the pdt flag and make like 20 days trades tomorrow to try to make it back (it was never real money in the first place since I never hit that withdrawal button). We’ll see…
The Hindenburg Omen has a mixed success rate, with historical studies suggesting an accuracy of around 25% in predicting a significant market crash, though some analyses show it correctly predicts market declines more often than not. It is known for having many false positives, but some analyses indicate that confirmed signals have a high probability of preceding a decline of over 5%. The Omen is considered a technical indicator that serves as a powerful red flag rather than a guaranteed predictor of a crash, and it's advised to use it with other tools for a comprehensive approach.
There was no foresight for the 2020 pandemic or the 2022 rate shock. Now 2025, stock is swinging upwards due to monetary easing returns and liquidity floods the system once again.
Because of its false positive rate (some sources say up to ~75% of triggers don’t lead to a major crash) it is best used as a warning flag rather than a market-timer.
Another way for institutions to shake out retail. They hate it when you hold for 10 years.
If there is one big red flag that makes my hair crawl, it´s professionals on tv arguing that "people just don´t understand this trade." And this has been going on a lot lately.