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First Commonwealth Financial Corp

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Meta is burning through its FCF faster than any hyperscaler and MSFT tied itself to ScamAI which it will need to bail out, so yea they don’t have any money for 3 year old neocloud gpu’s.
PMI growth is higher because they have access to international markets. Altria is constrained to US, where my DD says decline is overstated. PMI also has IQOS (recently approved by FDA though it has plenty more regulation to overcome) which has seen significant growth in japan, greece, and italy. + PMI owns zyn as stated. These three factors account for their fcf growth but the market is paying a premium for it. Altria's fcf is cheaper and misunderstood but comes with a better payout and an attractive buyback history (11 vs 24 p/fcf). The debt is not a problem as their fcf/debt shows debt will only carry less and less of an impact on shareholder returns. Altria is being priced as though it has no growth vector at all. Thats part of the deep value nature of my thesis. https://preview.redd.it/5zef6ledhh7g1.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9f7e6627cd56060349dbba02d1400150fe1596a
Yeah I saw your DD. Believe it or not I read it. Why is PMI fcf higher, and why is their FCF growth qoq at a higher rate? Their conversion rate seems to not matter if their debt is unsustainably high compared to PMI and their FCF growth is immediately eaten up by that massive dividend
The sell side has this pinned at a 0.8 beta, and also the dcf terminal growth is pegged at 0%, not cpi or Gdp. At the end of the day it's an 8% fcf yield, with no inflation passthrough, in a 4% world, not bad but it's no Wendys... WEN is pumping out 10.5% fcf yield with inflation pass through, and the thesis is simple: dumpster BJs never go out of style.
This market is going nowhere. COST trading at 100x FCF LMAO AVGO trading at 100 PE, chip sales can double but earning can't 5x LMAO LULU losing sales in NA 2% in a quarter, shrinking margins, shrinking EPS LMAO
ORCL doing the classic ‘good on paper, ugly under the hood.’ RPO moon numbers look great until you realize FCF is evaporating faster than Larry Ellison’s patience. Feels like one of those quarters where the headlines pump it and the footnotes drag it. Not touching unless it stops pretending the AI boom automatically fixes everything.”
You’re welcome. Still plenty of room to grow. PL has been FCF positive the last three quarters and continues to crush earnings QoQ. Space stocks in general are just beginning to moonshot. ASTS, RKLB, BKSY, etc. are the frontier of a new era. Idc what anyone else says. Look at how bullish the current administration is, including the FCC Chairman who expedited all of ASTS’ approvals. 2026 is going to be a huge year, and yes, I will admit I’m biased AF because I’m balls deep in this area.
AI data centers is a last ditch effort to say this slow dieing company. That FCF 🙈
11x current FCF, heading to more like 5x FCF by mid 2026
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