Diamond handing is tough since you don't know when they'll go on a run even if the thesis is correct. That's why i tend to stick to SMH etf too instead of playing individual semiconductors. You do miss out on the runs though but at least catch some of it.
But he’s not correct at all. Supply chain shocks always cause inflation and was the overwhelming reason why inflation picked up starting in 2021. The Iran war also caused inflation with the supply shock of oil. What you’re talking about is the 2% inflation rate goal which no one is even considering changing as that would be the beginning of the end. The 2% inflation rate goal keeps the economy healthy as people freak out if inflation drops below zero leading to cascading events as well as gdp so it gives the economy a decent buffer before that happens. Also why growth is measured as nominal gdp and real gdp.
This is why retail shouldn't trade on news or fundamentals. Just go with the flow and you'll make a lot more money. Learn to go cash during choppy or down periods and go 200% margin during bull runs.
Well it depends what his stop loss was. If something he bought went down 20% it’s hard to say he had the timing right. I mean sure you can buy and hold anything through any drawdown but realistically whether you’re trading or investing that’s too much of a loss.