I think the market will drop after even a cut but there’s also a chance they won’t cut or if they cut maybe like 50 bps.
1) stock market is rallying in September 2.3% so far this month, the cut has been priced in since J Powell’s announcement last month. How much more can it actually go? But again the market dynamics seem to be broken
2) A good number of consumer products companies and fast food chain hit 52 week low over the past few months. I think It shows softening consumer demand and hints impact of tariffs. Some are saying consumer spending is still strong but is this driven by the increase in goods due to tariffs and inflation? With added macroeconomic risk like unemployment i think there is a chance for a higher cut.
3) There’s a chance the current administration may introduce additional tariff or reform some trade policies, which could slump the stock market