I generally agree with you with the main thesis however one thing I do think you're overlooking when it comes to cigs specifically is that one of the biggest factors driving cig usage downwards specifically is the government. Consider if you will: 1. Places like Florida and Texas are trying to zero out rich people taxes like income and real estate which means more and more money needs to come from other tax sources 2. Cigs are priority A-1 when it comes to vice taxes 3. Most people who smoke cigs are poor and can barely afford to smoke cigs as is, especially the premium cigs like Marlboro 4. The places this is happening the hardest are also the places with the most poors Now how do you price something like that into your models? No fucking clue, but definitely don't think it's something you can discount entirely

---

zyn customer acquistion results is cig use attrition all roads lead to Altria

---

Did I just see a regard extensive research DD on a Cig company, I have seen everything on this sub. That said, well written! Now put the fries in the bag, im getting late

---

Zyns growth is attributed to its ability to customer acquire from no tobacco consuming segments. It has captured younger, non smoking consumers. 1 in 5 tobacco users who habitually consume tobacco products (daily use) whose first tobacco product was a non combustible, transition to habitual combustible tobacco consumption. Altria accounts for 50% of cig market. So growing zyn consumer base is good for Altrias long term earnings

---

Good... plenty will end up smoking cigs anyway (Altria owns 50% of US cig market)

---