Too early, I think. Their underwriting has been markedly worse since last year - they're allowing 3% No FICO loans to be placed in their prime ABS issuance, up from ~1% last year, as an example - but I think next year is when the music stops. Delinquencies in their subprime ABS issuance has jumped generally ~2% in the last two months, but I don't think it's happening fast enough to knock down the important B- and C-level tranches (A-rated and lower) yet.
But as far as I can tell they aren't issuing as much ABS as they did last year. So maybe the top is in shortly, followed by a taper and then a final collapse when the charade gets exposed.
Godspeed to your puts.
They don’t criticize their bonds because they’re all in bed and probably paid off by CVNA. JPM, MS, B of A, Wells, Citi, all of them. Just like TSLA, RBLX, PLTR, MSTR, APP and all the other overpriced bs pump jobs that they’re keeping propped up. Its all a scam to cook options buyers.
It´s pumping for a while. The harvests just keep coming in terrible. Same for cocoa. Guess this might continue until some chinese biotech starup creates genetically modified coffee that can grow in different conditions. And if one does I want shares of that Flankenstein Corporation. Not saying this is climate change, but it ain´t aliens, b... ro.
TSLA does $100B / yr in revenue, $1.3 T market cap
AAPL does $400 B / yr. $3.5 T market cap.
TSLA also has a deep but fairly uncertain product bench. Their revenue is as a car & also a solar/power grid battery company.
But at their core they are a technology company. There's some chance TSLA productize self-driving as a service for other car brands, autonomous taxi-network as a service, AI training and inference chips as a product, and/or humanoid robot - you can decide how you want to weight the likelihood of that chance, but some investors will give it high weight. It makes it hard to have too much conviction in a bear thesis.