i expect 25 bp cut now

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Lol imagine the market pricing a 100% chance of a cut and a 5% chance of a 50 bp cut at that and you’re just burning money betting on a hike. If you hate money that much I’ll take it. Also be a big boy and just go use the incredibly liquid futures markets that directly price this stuff.

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I think even if they cut the rates 25 BP the market is going to dump. it's beyond priced in

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All the big banks are saying a rate cut is happening. for a few days they were saying jobs were so bad 50 bp was definitely possible. Jobs last 3 quarters were as bad as they were during covid. Fed needs to satisfy the dual mandate and action needs to be taken.

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They also have the highest BP of any mammal

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Will the fed cut by 25 bp or 50 bp 🤔

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75 BP cut by end of year according to CME fedwatch

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As someone who made a 30% gain on ORCL puts today, I agree. Timing the market is tricky, but profitable. My guess is that after rate cuts next week, market plummets if it's not a 50 bp. If it is a 50bp, market plummets anyway within a month or two if unemployment gets worse.

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Yea let’s just do 50 bp and let it rip. This won’t fix inflation or jobs or anything. But market will send

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CME fed watch 8% possibility for a 50 BP cut Tomorrow that goes to 90% after CPI reports 1% inflation

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