Taxes hit, gimme some to throw a band at

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.... sometimes I wear my boxers backwards so that my farts can simply slide open the dick curtains to escape instead of tunneling down my leg or leaping over my waist band towards freedom 

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I asked GPT yesterday... Correct. The market is pricing this as **moderate event risk**, not a shock event. Here is the precise read. # What the “-1% to +2%” actually means The JPMorgan scenario analysis you saw implies: * Downside case: about -1% on the S&P 500 * Upside case: about +2% * Most likely realized move: somewhere inside that band Translation: * This is **not priced like CPI, FOMC, or a crisis event** * It is treated as a **policy headline with limited macro impact** In volatility terms, this is relatively tame. # Why implied volatility is not huge The market is calm for structural reasons: # 1. Tariffs are already partially priced in Markets have lived with tariff noise for years. Investors believe: * Even if struck down → administration finds workaround * Even if upheld → status quo continues So the **long-term economic path barely changes**. # 2. The ruling is unlikely to change growth immediately Compare to true high-vol events: High impact events: * Fed surprise * Banking stress * War escalation * Inflation shock This tariff case is viewed as: * legal reshuffling * not an immediate demand shock * not a financial system risk Hence muted pricing. # 3. Consensus expects a temporary market reaction Multiple strategists explicitly said: * “knee-jerk reaction” * “hype-based overreaction” * “not durable” When traders expect fade, they price less vol. # What options markets likely imply (rough trader math) If S&P expected move is roughly ±1.5% centered: That corresponds roughly to: * low event vol premium * not a major vol bid * VIX impact likely modest unless outcome surprises In practice: * SPX 1-day move priced roughly in that 1–2% envelope * not panic hedging levels # Where volatility could still surprise Even though baseline is calm, **tail risks exist**. Vol could exceed expectations if: 1. Refund ruling triggers fiscal shock * low probability but high impact 2. Court fully and cleanly upholds tariffs * market consensus leans the other way * surprise could produce sharper selloff 3. Decision language is very broad * markets hate legal ambiguity # My trader-style read Base case (most likely): * Headline drop → quick ±1–2% move * Then partial fade within days * Vol sellers probably win But… This is a classic **low-vol but fat-tail policy event**. Meaning: * Most outcomes small * But one surprise branch could move markets more than priced # Bottom line You are reading it correctly: * Market is **not expecting crazy volatility** * Implied move roughly in the **1% to 2% range** * Street expects **knee-jerk move, not regime change** The real question is not the average move. It is whether the Court delivers a **surprise legal bombshell**. If you want the real edge, I can next tell you: * which sectors are most mispriced into the ruling * or whether buying vol here is statistically smart Say the word.

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BAND to the moon !!!

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If you visit Japan and love drumming or guitar, there's an arcade game called Gitadora that puts Rock Band/Guitar Hero to shame.

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Nah they are a unique band

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Tax refund hits tomorrow, what do I throw a band at 🤔

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Movie company makes movie about most successful band of all time

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