Let's not talk about Amazon as a whole. We have to talk about Amazon Retail+Ads (ARA) and Amazon Web Services (AWS). They are two completely separate businesses bundled into one. ARA is actually a bad business (comparatively) that I wouldn't invest in. Growing 10% on $127B US and 17% on 50.7B intl, with margins around 9% and 2% respectively. Retail is hard to scale and profit. Your autonomous warehouse thesis hits here, they might be able to get a few points of margin here but it won't be game changing. AWS is what everyone's watching, the growth and backlog are slowing relative to GOOG/MSFT. The world is changing very actively and the newest tech companies and legacy companies are all choosing their AI cloud providers now, it's a new inning and every legacy and new tech company's cloud and AI spend is up for grabs. AWS's lackluster chips program and their lack of AI bundling like GOOG makes them the dumb choice for any enterprise or AI startup. It really comes down to this: Any startup or executive will choose 1) GOOG or 2) MSFT for their AI/Cloud strategy going forward. If you choose AWS/Oracle/IBM you will be laughed out of the room and fired (or your company will slowly sink). This is the current state of play. AWS might catch up later as startups and enterprises start going multicloud, but the current GOOG offering is just too attractive.

---