The big number high being the drop in ADP. Plus the number of days the gov is likely to be shut down.

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Re ADP data. Yes it isn't amazing but it is literally impossible to not get stagnant job growth when prime age participation is maxed out. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. It is mathematically impossible to have job growth when we are decreasing the foreign born working population actively and labor force participation is at historical highs. What matters is people actually getting laid off in mass, it isn't happening.

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Rolling jobless claims are 1.925 million compared to 1.821 million a year ago. Unemployment at 4.4% compared to 3.7% a year ago. Non farm payrolls for august went up only 22k compared to +175k a year ago. Also down for four months straight and at the worst levels since 2020. ADP payrolls are even worse. Job creation has literally stalled completely. Healthcare and education are the only thing preventing it from going negative. Q1 and Q2 GDP are up 3.2% combined but it completely distorted by a massive decrease in imports in Q2 due to tariffs. In 2024 Q1 and Q2 were up 4.4%. The largest 10 companies made up for 90% of all earnings growth in the last year which was mostly driven by AI capex. Inflation is sticky at around 2.9% and has shown no sign of retreat. ISM employment for September is in contraction territory at 47.2

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When the government opens back up, for now there’s ADP

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It won’t come out because the government is shut down. Then folks look at adp jobs numbers and panic. Or idk assume it’s good and pump

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Jobs ADP. There's no official numbers anymore because govt shut down Which people also think means a rate cut is coming

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ADP ain't

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adp numbers are highly regarded (non ironically)

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Well if you want the official answer it’s because adp came in significantly weaker and thus increased rate cut odds is seen by market as positive for “fundamentals”, besides no government data due to shutdown so nothing can prove market wrong until that’s resolved. However, I agree to an extent that some of the moves now are driven by retail fomo, plus 15+ years of reinforced machine learning that consistently rewards buy the dip mechanical feedback loop and it’s now pretty much ingrained in the market dynamics. Basically this is the new roaring 20s. Forget about real fundamentals just play along and try not to be caught with pants down when tide recedes. Holding shorts while everyone else is high on hopium is not a rewarding strat, I’d be buying put spreads whilst vol is low to try to catch some convexity and Vega bounce whilst minimizing theta decay to protect downside.

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tech customers are global..with weak usd, other countries could buy more murican product like cheaper apple or microsoft product for example rising inflation would be bad cause it could make the fed hawkish and not cut rate or even rising the rate again (doubt it tho, coz they're prioritizing unemployment now).. rising inflation > higher bond yield > bad for tech, coz their valuation/hype rely on future earning but the fed believe current inflation might be temporary because of tariff..based on sept fomc meeting dot plot.. we're probably gonna get 2 more rate cuts this year...next one would be this month high 99% chance, increased from high 80% because of the adp data and job revision..worse than expected

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