What i'm talking about is the difference could be between 2.745% rounding down to 2.7% versus 2.755% rounding up to 2.8%. That's also likely how the monthly number can come in same as estimate, while the year over year number misses. It's much worse for the month over month where 0.356% could round up to 0.4% instead of rounding down to 0.3%, and then people annualize that number which exaggerates the rounding error. You can see that the market might freak out over 3.6% annualized VS 4.8% even if the actual is not much different from the estimates. That's what happened to the recent core CPI release. The estimates I looked at was below, made in April 16, way before the GDP release yesterday which had the core PCE data that included today's release. It's likely economists increased their forecast for today's core PCE release, but your website did not update its estimate that close to the release. Also, you can see below that several anticipated 2.8% YoY, skewing up the (assumed) 2.7% estimates if you count 2-3 decimal points. [https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1](https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1)

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Basically a game of make money on calls, exit before CPI release, let the sell off occur, buy back in, repeat

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Guys the entire history is available here (we don't have to guess or argue): [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905) and [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:) Make sure you know if you're looking at Core PCE or PCE including food and energy. Also, don't confuse with CPI or Core CPI. Also, make sure you look at the base effects (i.e. The month of data that is dropping out of the most recent 12 month data for year over year reports. So the data reported in April 2023 drops out of YoY when this one is reported. The media sucks at explaining this.) Also, be careful you aren't comparing against one group's forecast (guess). There are multiple groups that put out forecasts and they aren't always the same. Them being wrong has no bearing on what is actually happening. So for instance, if Dow Jones thinks inflation is going to be 0.2% for the month, and it comes in at 0.3%, they will headline it as "inflation hotter than expected". Sometimes the consensus may be 0.3%, but the article you're reading only uses the group who thought 0.2%, for example. It's super annoying how they manipulate and make people double-check everything. And they often revise all this data afterwards anyway, but it's never covered by the media when they do. What a cluster our financial reporting is.

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tied to CPI

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why are u still in puts after there was no geopolitical escalation, no bad earnings, no PCE follow up on hot CPI... ur chasing last month's trade

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No it doesn't. It's already been known. Pce can be estimated pretty accurately after knowing CPI and PPI. That's why the pce data is typically priced in. The only new data in pce is consumer spending. This one is slightly different because yesterday's q1 pce suggested today might have a big upside surprise for some one off reason, which didn't happen.

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The only reason it didn't tank immediately on PCE is because it's kinda priced in. If April CPI comes in Hot then officially won't be enough time for 3 cuts.

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Sort of priced in since it's just one metric of inflation data and we already have cpi ppi etc

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3 straight months of inflation going the wrong way. April CPI will be a big test.

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I wish CNBC would invite a random member of the WSB community to join their panel discussions when numbers like CPI are released. would be a lot more entertaining than what they do now.

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