I sold all my Microsoft and half my Google yesterday. +80% on Microsoft and +95% on Google. Bought Amazon and Mindmed I personally am pivoting to the companies that will benefit from ai vs those making it

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Dumbest move ever he did here. 1.3$ profit vs 8.7$ loss. Oklo already at 187 only 13$ away being itm. I am genuinely scared for this guy

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Look at prices now vs 2008. They printed gazillions of dollars, inflation means prices of everything, even stocks, only goes up.

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Executive summary (short) The claim that the U.S. can “just make our own cooking oil” is technically true (the U.S. already crushes soy and produces vegetable oil) but economically and politically complex. Producing more vegetable oil at scale requires feedstock (soy/canola/palm alternatives), processing capacity, time and investment — and it competes with other uses (animal feed, biofuels).   ADM does have the structural advantage in U.S. crush and processing networks vs many rivals, so it is a logical “domestic supplier” candidate if policy pushes U.S.-first sourcing. But that advantage is necessary, not sufficient for a sustained re-rating — pricing, margins, and feedstock flows matter.   Used cooking oil (UCO) is not a substitute for food-grade vegetable oil for households/restaurants — UCO’s primary commercial use is in biofuels and it’s a constrained, waste-stream feedstock. Overplaying UCO as a source for “food oil” or as a large, scalable substitute is mistaken.   1) Technical & supply-chain reality What “making our own cooking oil” actually means It means increasing domestic crush of oilseeds (soybean, canola, sunflower) and refining them into food-grade vegetable oil. The U.S. already does this at scale; the top processors (ADM, Bunge, Cargill, AGP) crush the bulk of domestic soybeans and export meal + oil. Capacity is concentrated and dominated by a few players.   Building new large crush/refining capacity takes years (permitting, site selection, construction, commissioning). Shorter-term responses mean shifting existing capacity usage, importing different oilseeds, or redirecting domestic crops — all of which have limits and costs.   Feedstock constraint (the real choke point) Vegetable oil comes from oilseeds. If China reduces purchases of U.S. soy, that can increase domestic availability of soybeans, but not automatically: farmers may reallocate, and existing export contracts / logistics are not instantly reversible. Also, Brazil/Argentina can and will increase exports to China, taking demand off U.S. soy (already happening).   Used cooking oil (UCO) myth UCO is valuable but limited. It’s primarily used in biodiesel/renewable diesel and prized because of a low carbon intensity score under clean-fuel rules. UCO cannot substitute for food-grade vegetable oil supply at scale without major quality and regulatory issues. Therefore, arguments that “we’ll use UCO to replace imported cooking oil” are category errors — different use-cases and markets.   2) Timeframe & economics — why markets panic but the real world is slower Immediate market reaction to a political post is sentiment & positioning: headline risk spikes, ETFs and names closely associated with the theme gap-trade. But re-rating a large industrial like ADM requires durable margin improvement, not a 48-hour tweet. Capex & margin dynamics: processors make money from the crush spread (value of soybean oil + meal minus cost of soybeans + processing cost). Tariffs and policy can help by privileging domestic suppliers, but if soy prices rise (or biofuel demand is unstable) margins can compress. Short-term rallies often fade if commodity fundamentals don’t change.   3) Comparison: ADM vs. Bunge — where the advantage really lies Scale & domestic footprint: ADM is generally viewed as the largest processor with extensive U.S. crush/refining footprint; the top 3–4 firms (ADM among them) handle ~75% of crush volume, which gives ADM greater ability to serve any “Buy American” push.

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This idea relies on time traveling back knowing what we know now - which is apparently not part of their strategy. To be honest them sticking to their strategy is more impressive, shows discipline and confidence in their methods. Without a crystal ball, in an expensive market, $bn level risk-free income vs your average people’s maybe $m but life-and-death gamble… easy choice, right?

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There is no bubble. But, whatever it is will be popped when China shuts off rare Earths. there will be zero chips produced... so the only obvious hedge is long mining companies. XME vs SMH correlation. if you were in xme, at an equal weight to SMH you did not notice any down move on Friday... I don't see why this is complicated

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Immortal unc vs ceo of mcdonalds Lets see who lives the longest.

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I would’ve thought no, but would’ve argued that risk-adjusted it’s a good investment. Similar to how, say, bonds underperforms the SP500 but is the right investment for certain classes of investors. That said, it’s out performed the SP500 over 10, 15, and 20 year horizons. [link](https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gspc). Edit: Sp500 issues dividends, BRK doesn’t. That’ll skew total returns which is not represented in the chart above

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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/theres-a-shocking-disparity-between-how-high-income-and-low-income-earners-feel-about-the-economy.html >There’s a shocking disparity between how high-income and low-income earners feel about the economy. >Higher-income consumers were more likely to report stronger economic confidence readings when asked to consider the next year given changes since the presidential election, according to JPMorgan’s Cost of Living Survey. >This release adds to a growing body of qualitative and quantitative evidence showing the U.S. economy is in a “K-shape,” a term used by economists to describe the deviation in economic experiences by income. In other words, it can explain why well-off Americans are continuing to spend while lower earners buckle under inflationary pressures. Nooooo wayyy. Rich and tech bros consuming more and more off the AI bubble and scam: https://i.postimg.cc/YSBX9RRh/top-10-income-consumption-Copy.png They feel good about the economy vs. poor and middle class who are still dealing with rising prices??? Woooow. Big if true. To make sure they feel even better though let's not wait two weeks after S&P is down -.1% today. Cut rates today.

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$30m cooking oil imports vs $12b soy bean exports... I might be a bit regarded but the math doesn't seem to work here.

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